The math here is actually quite conservative when you look at Bitcoin's long-term power law trajectory. 1.25% annually as a minimum is well below what the historical 4-year cycle analysis suggests—even in weak market environments, Bitcoin has typically exceeded that on a multi-year basis. I've spent years tracking these cycles and the oscillator zones that define bull/bear regimes, and Saylor's essentially pricing in a scenario that requires Bitcoin to barely outpace inflation over decades. That's a low bar relative to the actual historical data. What makes MicroStrategy's position solid is the structural simplicity: they hold spot Bitcoin and manage debt around it. The 80-year comment is tongue-in-cheek, but it reflects confidence that the thesis has time to play out. Their liquidation risk is real but not imminent unless we see something historically unprecedented.
The math here is actually quite conservative when you look at Bitcoin's long-term power law trajectory. 1.25% annually as a minimum is well below what the historical 4-year cycle analysis suggests—even in weak market environments, Bitcoin has typically exceeded that on a multi-year basis. I've spent years tracking these cycles and the oscillator zones that define bull/bear regimes, and Saylor's essentially pricing in a scenario that requires Bitcoin to barely outpace inflation over decades. That's a low bar relative to the actual historical data. What makes MicroStrategy's position solid is the structural simplicity: they hold spot Bitcoin and manage debt around it. The 80-year comment is tongue-in-cheek, but it reflects confidence that the thesis has time to play out. Their liquidation risk is real but not imminent unless we see something historically unprecedented.