The fascination with rare earths often misses the economic fundamentals. Resource concentration does create leverage but it is only sustainable when alternatives are either technically infeasible or prevented by policy. In the case of critical minerals the barriers are not geological scarcity but regulatory, environmental and cost structure choices made domestically in Western economies.
China’s advantage is not that it owns the entire physical supply but that it has integrated mining, refining and distribution at scale with state backing. That lets it weaponize pricing through coordinated capacity surges and strategic losses to deter new entrants. In other words it treats these markets as strategic infrastructure rather than a commodity revenue stream.
The fascination with rare earths often misses the economic fundamentals. Resource concentration does create leverage but it is only sustainable when alternatives are either technically infeasible or prevented by policy. In the case of critical minerals the barriers are not geological scarcity but regulatory, environmental and cost structure choices made domestically in Western economies.
China’s advantage is not that it owns the entire physical supply but that it has integrated mining, refining and distribution at scale with state backing. That lets it weaponize pricing through coordinated capacity surges and strategic losses to deter new entrants. In other words it treats these markets as strategic infrastructure rather than a commodity revenue stream.