History shows that geopolitical shocks that raise oil prices tend to put pressure on the stock market, but rarely cause prolonged collapses.

In episodes like the Gulf War, Iraq, or Libya, the average drawdown of the S&P 500 ranged between ~2% and ~19%, often concentrated at the beginning of the crisis.

In other words, although oil prices soar and volatility increases, the structural impact on stock markets is usually more limited than imagined.