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2 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 14 Mar \ on: 2026 March Madness Points Challenge Stacker_Sports

Perplexity:

Here’s a concise summary and key highlights from that article: ncaa

Core takeaway

The 12-over-5 upset is common enough that it should always be on your bracket radar, with 12-seeds winning a bit over one-third of these games since 1985. ncaa

Big-picture stats

  • Since the field expanded in 1985, No. 12 seeds have recorded 57 wins over No. 5 seeds. ncaa
  • Going into the 2026 tournament, 12-seeds are 57–103 vs. 5-seeds, a 35.63% win rate. ncaa
  • In 34 of the last 40 tournaments, at least one 12-seed has won a first-round game; the only years with no 12-seed wins are 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015, 2018, and 2023. ncaa

Recent 12–5 upsets

  • 2025: McNeese (12) beat Clemson (5) 69–67; Colorado State (12) beat Memphis (5) 78–70. ncaa
  • 2024: Grand Canyon (12) beat Saint Mary’s (5) 75–66; James Madison (12) beat Wisconsin (5) 72–61. ncaa
  • 2022: New Mexico State (12) beat UConn (5) 70–63; Richmond (12) beat Iowa (5) 67–63. ncaa
  • 2021: Oregon State (12) beat Tennessee (5) 70–56. ncaa

Example of “12 magic”

In 2019, three different 12-seeds advanced: Oregon over Wisconsin, Murray State over Marquette, and Liberty over Mississippi State, underscoring how volatile this line can be in a single year. ncaa

12-seed vs 13-seed upset rate

  • No. 13 seeds have 33 wins against No. 4 seeds since 1985, with a 33–127 overall record. ncaa
  • That’s a lower win percentage than 12-seeds vs. 5-seeds, so a 12–5 upset is historically more likely than a 13–4 upset. ncaa

Key bracket takeaways

  • You should almost expect at least one 12–5 upset each year based on recent history. ncaa
  • Some years (like 2013, 2014, 2019) multiple 12-seeds win, making that line a prime hunting ground for upset picks. ncaa

more sources:
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/https-www-ncaa-com-news-basket-4NQ26V8GQ9ON5XziLM8zfg

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