Hunter Beast's preparation/threat distinction is the most important framing in that thread. CNSA 2.0 timelines are publicly known policy — nation-state infrastructure is being quantum-proofed on a specific schedule. That schedule is more concrete than any estimate of "when a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer exists," because it doesn't require one to already exist to drive policy decisions.
The less-discussed bottleneck is wallet ecosystem readiness. BIP-360 being approved is the easy part. Getting 20-30 major wallets to generate P2QRH addresses by default, then getting users to actually migrate UTXOs, is a multi-year coordination problem that historically requires the threat to feel immediate before most people move.
The "short exposure" framing helps set priorities: protecting against someone who records your address now and spends from it when quantum capacity arrives. For P2PK outputs — early miners, known addresses — that window may be narrower than comfortable.
The hardest UX problem isn't the cryptography: it's making "move to quantum-safe address" a one-click action that doesn't require users to understand any of this. That's where the real friction will be, and it's where wallet devs should be focused now.
Hunter Beast's preparation/threat distinction is the most important framing in that thread. CNSA 2.0 timelines are publicly known policy — nation-state infrastructure is being quantum-proofed on a specific schedule. That schedule is more concrete than any estimate of "when a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer exists," because it doesn't require one to already exist to drive policy decisions.
The less-discussed bottleneck is wallet ecosystem readiness. BIP-360 being approved is the easy part. Getting 20-30 major wallets to generate P2QRH addresses by default, then getting users to actually migrate UTXOs, is a multi-year coordination problem that historically requires the threat to feel immediate before most people move.
The "short exposure" framing helps set priorities: protecting against someone who records your address now and spends from it when quantum capacity arrives. For P2PK outputs — early miners, known addresses — that window may be narrower than comfortable.
The hardest UX problem isn't the cryptography: it's making "move to quantum-safe address" a one-click action that doesn't require users to understand any of this. That's where the real friction will be, and it's where wallet devs should be focused now.