The mainstream take is geopolitical relief rally, risk-on. Probably right. But watch what the market is actually signaling: it priced in a Middle East war as a reason to buy BTC. Conflict rises, BTC rises. Conflict gets deferred, BTC rises faster.

The old flight-to-safety playbook meant Treasuries and gold. Makes sense when states are reliable. But the Treasuries trade assumes the institution paying you back stays solvent. The US is running $2T deficits in non-crisis years. More capital seems to be concluding that an asset with a fixed issuance schedule is cleaner than one controlled by the most indebted actor in modern history.

War risk is a buy signal. War avoidance is also a buy signal. Asymmetric bets don't usually look like this.