Over the last 30 days, oil has shown a NEGATIVE correlation with nearly every major asset class, with global bonds at -0.67, developed market stocks at -0.55, emerging market stocks at -0.41, and Bitcoin at -0.28.
The only asset moving in the same direction as oil is the US Dollar, with a +0.45 correlation, as surging energy costs fuel Dollar demand globally.
Even gold, traditionally a safe haven during geopolitical crises, has had a -0.15 correlation with oil.
Meanwhlie, the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, and the United States Oil ETF, $USO, have moved in opposite directions in 38 out of the last 50 trading sessions, the highest in at least 20 years, surpassing the Great Financial Crisis record of 36.
Until oil prices stabilize, expect volatility across every asset class to remain elevated.
STRC??
Indeed, the markets are looking at oil a lot for two reasons:
With the conflict in the Middle East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, around 20% of global oil trade is disrupted. Production has decreased and today stocks are falling. This keeps oil prices at high levels (> $100/bbl).
And this is starting to weigh on inflation. In April, many states saw their inflation rise. As a result, this raises interest rates and therefore lowers the price of bonds.
Afterwards, I don't know how ETFs work to explain why they perform better. Generally, when oil rises, BTC falls (investors prefer to reduce their position in risky assets). ETFs perhaps make it possible to benefit (with a little delay) partially from the volatility of the sectors in which they are invested and are therefore less exposed... but that is only a hypothesis; I don't have enough perspective to say that I'm right.