There is a difference between the block party, where indeed, you only make money if they find a block during those 18 hours, and the market place where you buy a certain amount of hash rate, and the profit you make is set at the time of buying. There haven't been any lots to buy in a while, though.

And for your second question, the parties haven't found a block just yet.

I'm curious about this too. The impression I had is that you would expect to lose a little bit, although you can get lucky of course.