We're arguably already there, for example with Quantinuum's simulation of the Fermi-Hubbard model last year, or Google's measurement of "OTOCs" (out of time order correlators).

("Arguably" because it depends on exactly how hard you think the result would've been to reproduce classically.)

If we're not there, we'll be there extremely soon.  So I'm already looking ahead to the next milestone, which is when condensed-matter physicists, materials scientists, etc. who don't "intrinsically" care about quantum computing at all, are nevertheless using it as a tool to help answer the questions they do care about, which they weren't able to answer using high-performance classical computing.  And then commercially relevant quantum simulations are a *next* milestone after that.

ScottAaronson

In the context of simulating many-body systems, what kind of result would you personally take as clear evidence that we’ve gone beyond problems that are merely hard in practice for classical methods, to something that genuinely requires a quantum device?

I'm Scott Aaronson, quantum computing theorist at UT Austin!  AMA

From @south_korea_ln:

> In the context of simulating many-body systems, what kind of result would you personally take as clear evidence that we’ve gone beyond problems that are merely hard in practice for classical methods, to something that genuinely requires a quantum device?