Beef has jumped 65 percent since 2020, turning a staple into a splurge. From drought-stricken ranches to fast-food menu shifts, beef prices are reshaping how Americans eat.

Fluctuations in food prices are so commonplace that the entire category is excluded from the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. From war and weather to fertilizer and labor, hundreds of unseen influences shape the prices of goods long before they reach grocery shelves. But a sustained surge in one American staple has everybody buzzing. 

Beef prices are up 65 percent since April 2020. Ground beef has surged to $6.70 per pound as a prolonged supply shock has failed to keep up with consistent demand. Relief will not come soon. Industry experts say we are only partway through an unprecedented price increase that began in 2019, and if demand stays constant, could top $10 per pound by fall. Drought in grazing lands and cyclical shrinking of national cattle herds have flattened supply to 75-year lows. While individual beef cattle are getting heavier and meatier with grain-feeding, the actual number of animals hasn’t grown at the same clip as Americans’ dietary demand.

Timing the conception of calves for two-year growth cycles requires farmers to anticipate when feed and forage will be affordable, in hopes that the price for finished beef will cover costs. And anyone looking to expand their breeding herd is paying the same sky-high price as beef buyers. If prices drop even a little, the profitability margin disappears.

“Instead of spurring ranchers to breed heifers, high prices are incentivizing producers to sell them to pay debts,” Narciso Perez, a cattle broker in Albuquerque, New Mexico, told The Guardian newspaper. Some tariff rollbacks and carveouts have allowed more beef into the US, but ranchers aren’t happy about the increased competition.

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