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I'm not saying I'm against prediction markets, but I do think pitching it as some social good is a bit rich.
It's like substituting chew for cigarettes. What's the problem?
I think there are some things that make it a potentially bigger issue than traditional betting, like ease of access by minors, the frictionlessness of the interface, the ease of doing it alone, etc
None of those issues seem intrinsic, at least in comparison to the online casinos that have been around for a long time already.
I'm starting to think that literally having to sit down at a computer and use a mouse and keyboard was enough of a friction to prevent the population from going crazy, and that barrier has now been removed, and now people can simply ooga booga by pointing their fingers at the thing like babies
Hard to argue with that
that's its too minor, too insignificant, and too stupid?
Also, I hedge my negative-sum sports bets with prediction markets all the time. Checkmate and you're welcome
yeah, you're one dude at the edge of internet irrelevancy (soz, no offense!)
Risk aversion increasing is inconsistent with an increase in gambling, no?
Individually, I see your point (but also, yolo-ing and hail mary gambles are a thing) -- if I'm less safe, more weary, why gamble mroe? -- but I think in aggregate it makes sense... if societies don't go for long shots and risky ventures in search of growth, there's little to no improvement, and the only way out is building zero-sum environments.
(I'll explain/explore in more detail when I've finished the book)
if societies don't go for long shots and risky ventures in search of growth, there's little to no improvement, and the only way out is building zero-sum environments.
This part is correct. Risk aversion means you'd take a lesser expected return for a lower risk of total ruin. The problem is that risk aversion also means you would hold cash rather than wager it.
yeah, you're one dude at the edge of internet irrelevancy
Only until I hit it big on prediction markets. Also, which edge?
our SN edge -- you know, the one with clankers and like twelve real people
So, not the one that's close to being relevant
I'm sure this is some witty Undisc comment I'm too stupid to grasp -.-
You don't usually notice
Improvement!!
Not from my perspective
Risk aversion increasing is inconsistent with an increase in gambling, no?
Also, I hedge my negative-sum sports bets with prediction markets all the time. Checkmate and you're welcome.
Also, also, if prediction markets have smaller takes than traditional books as well easier ways out of bad wagers, then aren't they an improvement to the world?