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read up on my math primers @grayruby, soccer is probably best modeled by continuous time bellman equations
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this was in the context of bitcoin mining, but the idea is to model a system where the state can transition, , according to strategic actions of players within the system, and according to discrete probabilistic events
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Soccer is less conducive to analytics because it is more free flowing and reactive than other sports. Much fewer set plays and instead reacting to where the ball goes. I would say hockey is the closest in that regard. Hockey has had its challenges with analytics as well.