TBH it's the very big divide between the physics community and the cryptography community on this issue. Over the past year, physicists on average (like Scott A who was on a previous AMA) have become more bullish (or put another way, much less bearish) on near-term CRQC.

But many cryptographers (including several who I deeply respect) haven't updated their views. I find it very interesting that this divergence exists. OFC both sides bring their own biases, and certainly one side or the other is right as time will tell. But the dissonance surprised me.