The people who say it are usually right that DCA isn't optimal. If you had perfect timing, lump sum at every bottom beats DCA every time. The math isn't close.
But here's what the math misses: most people who try to time it hold cash waiting for a lower price that doesn't come. Or they buy the dip and panic-sell into the next one. The "optimal" strategy only works if you actually execute it, and most people don't.
DCA works because it removes the decision. You're not betting on your ability to read the market. You're betting on your ability to stay consistent. That's a much more winnable bet for most people.
The person who DCA'd through 2022 without checking the price and the person who tried to time the bottom-one of them ended up with more bitcoin. It's usually not the one who was trying.
Not saying DCA is the smartest strategy. I'm saying it's the one most people can actually finish.
Comparto todo tipo de análisis del DCA (estádisticas, matemática financiera, analisis económicos), en fin.
https://twiiit.com/MatheyBTC/status/2050265404095017103
I agree with this view, and I’d like to add that, at the end of the day, what matters is investing your fiat money and gradually shifting it to Bitcoin—whether through dollar-cost averaging or by trying to predict market bottoms. The sooner you start accumulating SATs, the better. In conclusion, I’d like to note that the true results and prospects for Bitcoin are best assessed over a minimum period of four years to achieve and see satisfactory outcomes.
Well said, the four-year frame is the right one. Most of the anxiety around entry price disappears entirely when you zoom out to a full cycle. The people who struggled weren't wrong about Bitcoin, they were just measuring themselves against the wrong timeframe.
Timing the market is for pussies who end up with bags of regret.
Exactly, and that's the point the post is making. The people loudest about timing being superior are usually the ones who held cash waiting for a lower price that never came. DCA isn't the smartest strategy in theory. It's the one most people can actually finish.
Backtests on BTC show even random monthly buys beat strict DCA over 5+ year windows. The gap shrinks once you add the cost of sitting in cash during rallies.