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I don’t doubt that the data quality is great. It’s just that you can’t infer from simple averages what the returns are.

In order to estimate returns, you also need a measure of each student’s counterfactual earnings, which is very difficult.

Who is the reference group? The charts say "people who didn't enroll". The footnote says "data from public colleges". I can only assume that the reference group is "people who didn't enroll in a public college"?

That seems like a mish-mash of a lot of different kinds of people.

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I don't think so, I would assume private would be covered as well because Baylor University and SMU are both private but huge schools. Rice is also a private one but extremely well-regarded.

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I thought they were just looking at earnings minus financial cost of college for those who attended, which has a great many shortcomings.

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