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Who is the reference group? The charts say "people who didn't enroll". The footnote says "data from public colleges". I can only assume that the reference group is "people who didn't enroll in a public college"?
That seems like a mish-mash of a lot of different kinds of people.
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I thought they were just looking at earnings minus financial cost of college for those who attended, which has a great many shortcomings.
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I don’t doubt that the data quality is great. It’s just that you can’t infer from simple averages what the returns are.
In order to estimate returns, you also need a measure of each student’s counterfactual earnings, which is very difficult.