I’ve been in Bitcoin since the sub‑$1 era, back when faucets were a thing and miners were something you built, not bought. My work has always been cycle driven, not candle‑driven, and one pattern I documented years ago (including in a 2018 course) is the seasonal drag around Chinese New Year.

It’s not a universal law, bull mania overrides everything; but across multiple cycles the CNY window has acted like a sentiment pressure point. Enough times to pay attention, not enough to treat as gospel.

Looking at the current macro structure, we’re entering the strong‑bull phase of this cycle. If the historical rhythm repeats, we could see a run‑up into CNY followed by a cooling period. Not a prophecy; just a pattern I’ve tracked for over a decade.

Curious if anyone else here studies macro‑cycles or seasonal effects. Always interested in comparing long‑horizon signals with other builders and analysts.

bitcoin

bitcoinplusplus

I’ve been in Bitcoin since the sub‑$1 era, back when faucets were a thing and miners were something you built, not bought. My work has always been cycle driven, not candle‑driven, and one pattern I documented years ago (including in a 2018 course) is the seasonal drag around Chinese New Year.


It’s not a universal law, bull mania overrides everything; but across multiple cycles the CNY window has acted like a sentiment pressure point. Enough times to pay attention, not enough to treat as gospel.


Looking at the current macro structure, we’re entering the strong‑bull phase of this cycle. If the historical rhythm repeats, we could see a run‑up into CNY followed by a cooling period. Not a prophecy; just a pattern I’ve tracked for over a decade.


Curious if anyone else here studies macro‑cycles or seasonal effects. Always interested in comparing long‑horizon signals with other builders and analysts.