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Influencing markets and influencing direction are different things
Direction is already decided, these public displays are a slow drip of informing us what decisions have already been made... the influence to the markets is to let them price that in slowly rather than a vol shock all at once
is the trade war really that crucial
For national security absolutely, a country without an industrial base is not a country, trade policy can either support or destroy an industrial base
The dollar too is a part of trade policy, and the current construct of the dollar has been a disaster for national security... having to export dollars instead of goods hollows out the industrial base... creates debt. This is why Bitcoin is so important, a neutral reserve to taper the US off the Triffin Dilemma
That makes sense. What is Triffin's dilemma?
Basically the country with the world reserve currency has to run trade deficits and debt spending to keep the global system liquid, coined in the 60s. JD Vance even spoke about it while in the Senate. Major natsec issue.
the stability of a system that doesn't have it interesting.
But how much will it influence things? And what about Taiwan's allies? Beyond the political facade, is the trade war really that crucial?