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You can't observe a system without changing it. This was always going to be the most interesting thing about prediction markets.

Once we live in a world of permissionless money, there won't even be these silly attempts to stop people from wagering on these things.

assassination markets, yeeeehaaaaaa. I'm targeting the boomers with my newfound wealth.

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Jokes on you, they have all the money and can just take the heavy positions on themselves dying. The only way to make any money will be keeping them alive.

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