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I wouldn't be lending the British Government money for 8 years at 4.5%. Why would you do that when you can get 4.19% on a 1 year?

You might want to lock in a nominal return of 4.5% for 8 years if you expect rates to go down in the future.

Doesn't sound attractive to me, but there are some who might want to do that.

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I am sure long bonds will rally a bit if rates drop but there doesn't seem to be a lot of demand these days to lend governments money for longer than a few months to 2yrs.

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does it matter that much if you're just using the long bonds for a short-term trade? (Essentially, riding the implied leverage)

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you would do that if rates fell sharply below 4.5 after the one year. Then you would be glad to have "locked in" guaranteed 4.5. Also inflation would have to fall well below that for the return to be appetizing.

In other words: only theoretically, not happening in practice. Only banks who are forced by law to do it, do it.

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Duration... Bond convexity.

(he hinted at it in the piece, lower inflation post-Iran peace is gonna rally the long bonds more than the short. Some resources here #1430666)

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I disagree. The trend is growing demand for short term treasuries. Unless we are flipping to a deflationary environment I don't see a huge rally for long term bonds in the future.

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disagree with his take, or the trading implication of his assessment?

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