Ah, had I just waited with my WC predictions another little day I'd have some more basis for my guesses! (#1501627, #1501135)

Here's Mr. Silver running 100,000 simulations in his soccer model PELE. #1493265

In prediction markets, France and Spain are essentially co-favorites at around 17 percent, leaving plenty of win probability to divide among defending champion Argentina, England, Brazil, Portugal and others. It’s the sort of tournament where home-field advantage might break the tie. But the three co-hosts, Mexico, Canada and the United States, are a tier or two below elite status according to nearly everyone’s estimation.

So who does PELE like? While our model doesn’t deviate too much from the conventional wisdom, we don’t have teams in quite the same order. Each time we run the model, we play out 100,000 simulated World Cups, accounting for the difficulty of each team’s draw, meticulously calculating tiebreakers, and even the possibility of a dark-horse contender getting hot and unexpectedly being in top form.4 Let’s look at the PELE ratings and some specific adjustments that we’ve made to them for the World Cup.

"Spain is our top-rated team — though only barely over Argentina — with roster adjustments that move them slightly back toward the rest of the pack. England and France, meanwhile, are essentially tied for the #3 position.""Spain is our top-rated team — though only barely over Argentina — with roster adjustments that move them slightly back toward the rest of the pack. England and France, meanwhile, are essentially tied for the #3 position."

Oh well, I'm stuck with France for now. PSG won the UCL #1499287 so oooof course we'll bring another trophy there.