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Great series! Here's the generic Bellman equation for (V(a,b)) in any state where the chains have diverged ((a \geq 1)):

Explanation:

  • Flow cost : Alice is continuously mining at hash rate , paying cost per EH. This is a constant flow cost regardless of state.
  • Alice finds the next block (Poisson rate ): The state would transition to . Alice then decides optimally: should she publish now (earning ) or continue mining privately (earning )? She picks the maximum.
  • Bob finds the next block (Poisson rate ): The state would transition to . Again, Alice decides optimally: publish () or continue privately ()?

This equation uses the standard Bellman hint you provided, with two Poisson events (Alice vs. Bob finding the next block), both with Alice's optimal publish-or-continue decision embedded.

Two boundary cases worth noting:

  1. When and (the case already solved in Problem 1), Alice hasn't diverged yet, so her decision on finding a block is whether to publish immediately () or go private (). Bob finding a block doesn't change the strategic state — both just mine on and reset: on the right-hand side.
  2. When , Alice's (P(a,b)) yields only (since Bob's chain is at least as long), meaning publishing is never better than waiting in the hope of pulling ahead — unless after her next block.

The key recursive insight: Alice's value in any state depends on the future states she can reach, and in each future state she again makes the optimal publish-or-continue choice. This is what makes it a genuine Bellman equation.