After 6 rounds of this year's F1 (a bunch of Middle Eastern races cancelled bc Greater Israel Project... LOL, sorry, Solomon!), and another 16(!) left to go, plus 3 additional sprints, the infinitely wise betters at Predyx have already declared Antonelli the winner.

I'm not buying itI'm not buying it

Not gonna lie, the 19-year-old has looked incredibly impressive and, most importantly, stable af in the beginning of the year. Winning five races in a row, dude's on fire ("One Man Fucks Over..." #1504544).

STANDINGS right now:STANDINGS right now:

1. Kimi Antonelli: 156 pts

2. Lewis Hamilton 90 pts (-66)

3. George Russell 88 pts (-68)

4. Charles LeClerc 75 pts (-81)

5. Oscar Piastri 60 pts (-96)

6. Lando Norris 58 pts (-98)

7. Max Verstappen 43 pts (-113)

There are 16 more trophies to fight for (25 points), and second/third/fourth etc places (18-15-12) points. Winning the rest of the season is 400 points, with the three sprints, too, for another 24 points. Calculating with an insane Verstappen comeback and Antonelli second everywhere, that's 115 points margin, just enough for Verstappen to have matters in his own hands (and by implication, everybody else in the top-7 has that chance).

Of course, the bigger problem is that the challengers gotta beat Antonelli, which has seemed pretty impossible so far -- with the crashes by LeClerc, poorly functioning car from Verstappen's Red Bull, Norris crash/car dysfunctions.

...but the Predyx odds are 90% already! is the upside worth it? Do I believe some combination of

• youngster won't get hubris and suffer from nerves
• Antonelli won't crash out or have a few poor race performances.
• Mercedes cars won't have mechanical problems for the rest of the season
• McLaren or Red Bull don't get their cars in order at some point?

Yes, I understand that he's a heavy favorite -- especially the way things have been going so far (five wins!). But it's been way more luck and circumstances than that suggests, and plenty of those wins/qualifying races were _INCREDIBLY_ narrow. Yesterday, Verstappen's car just wouldn't start, even though he had qualified second and had lap times insignificantly different from Antonelli.

Put differently, re-run 2026 ten times, do I think the other teams at least once get their shit together and literally give Antonelli a run for his money? Yes. Yes, I do.

TRADING OPTIONS:

1. Sit out the profits: That's ~11% return from here to Dec 7. Boring; high probability
2. Take profits now: either move on to something else, or YOLO back in later in the season when we have more clarity... and some lettuce hands feck off.

Still very happy with my insta-10% flip return here...including fees.
(Somehow the numbers here don't make sense, because 1/0.9 = 11%, but judging from my selling price I have a 17% upside to win. 17% pretty much guaranteed in six months, 30%-ish CAGR, is amazing.)

BUT. There's so much that can happen. Crazy turnarounds have happened before in F1 -- see last year, when Verstappen was this bloody close to unseat Norris from a hopelessly lost position mid-season.

Steamroller warning on this bet. 90 is too crazy.

(Polymarket, i.e. the real sharps #1497608, have him at 70%. Grok, too, estimates 75-80%.; Predyx penalizes trading now, iirc, but I'll take my cash, I think.)

BYE GUYS, HAVE FUN STAYING POOR!