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If this were a normal market I would agree with you, but if you value a company 100x revenue without any feasible justification as to why, as a rational investor what else do I have to go on? Blind faith? This isn't to say AI is useless or SpaceX will fail, this is really a value question about the distortion of price signals through which we can make intelligent capital allocation decisions.
I get that but also SpaceX isn't anywhere near it's earning potential, so why should I care about that revenue ratio?
If there's a 3% chance of them mining an asteroid containing quadrillions of dollars worth of minerals (of which our solar system has thousands), their current revenue is completely irrelevant to their discounted present value.
If you are willing to bet on these hypotheticals, then definitely the revenue ratio doesn't matter. I personally don't see how we get from where we are to say a $1 trillion in revenue in the next 10 years, not to mention the infrastructure challenges required to put data centres in space. I am not saying it's impossible but the costs of doing so and maintaining it will require billions more before generating any meaningful return.
I don't see it either, which is why I didn't buy in, but the point is that their current revenue isn't at all what people are banking on. It's totally irrelevant compared to the scope of their future potential.
How is this potential being measured with all the funky valuations going on? Is it just trusting Elon? This is the real question for me, because if you recall during the dotcom era, many things were spoken of and some are yet to materialize to this day. Looks more like speculative gambling to me than prudent investing, unless if Elon is sitting on a major discovery that he is yet to share with the world.
Yeah, it's highly speculative, way more so than the dot-com era. We're in totally uncharted water.
I'd say it's more like speculating on sea voyages during the Age of Exploration and people trust Elon at the helm of the ship based on his prior successes.
For their sake, i hope they are right and that they don't get shafted while chasing waterfalls
Something that's always worth keeping in mind is that a financial bubble doesn't mean the underlying thesis is wrong.
The dot-com bubble didn't burst because internet commerce was a dumb idea. It burst because many specific applications of internet commerce were badly misvalued.
The uncertainty around valuing SpaceX or AI projects is enormous. I don't think we can even comprehend the upside but we also don't know the probabilities of the different outcomes at all.