I think anyone who paid any attention to this race could see this from a mile away.

The numbers show around 94 percent of Democratic voters back Talarico and 91 percent of Republican voters back Paxton. About 58 percent of independents say they back the Democratic hopeful, while 31 percent put their support behind the attorney general, the numbers show.

Another 13 percent say they prefer another candidate, according to the poll.

This loosely remains the same among 2024 presidential election voters. Roughly 95 percent of Texans who voted for former Vice President Harris say they would vote for Talarico, while 87 percent of voters who chose President Trump say they would vote for Paxton, the pollsters noted.

Of those who did not vote in the last presidential election, 48 percent support the state lawmaker compared to 29 percent who back Paxton. Only 5 percent of Republicans say they would choose Talarico while 3 percent of Democrats said the same about the GOP candidate, the poll found.

Talarico carries support mostly from Black voters, garnering 80 percent support to the Republican’s 13 percent. He also led 61 percent to 29 percent among Hispanic voters, according to the survey.

Paxton is lagging Trump's 2024 results when it comes to Black and Hispanic votes. Part of Trump's 2024 wave was based on the inroads he had made with minority voters across the U.S., and Paxton just plain does not have the appeal. Is this enough to make Texas flip? I doubt it given the history of the state, but the resources that Republicans are going to have to spend to keep this seat are enormous and, as a result, are going to drain funding that would otherwise go to Senate races in North Carolina, Maine, Wisconsin, etc.

Polls had shown dating back to the beginning of the year that Paxton was not appealing to Independent voters and Cornyn was. This is yet another poll showing that this continues to be the case following the Texas Pulse poll from earlier in the month.