I've spent 7+ years building Bitcoin/Web3 products across East and Sub-Saharan Africa — Binance Kenya, Satoshi Centre Botswana, Bitsoko, and now FOMO Weekly, an 8-country Bitcoin media network.
One thing kept bugging me: prediction markets exist (Polymarket, Kalshi), but none of them are actually built for Lightning, and none of them are built for people without a bank account.
So we built BearBull, where you stake sats on BTC's short-term direction (up or down), and if you're right, you split the losing pool instantly over Lightning. Fully non-custodial; your funds never leave your wallet until the round settles.
Right now we're running "Power Hour" promos where the house adds extra sats to the pools for bigger payouts. If anyone wants to try it and tell me what's broken, I'd genuinely appreciate the feedback: http://bearbull.xyz
Happy to answer anything about how the pool mechanics work, the Lightning settlement side, or building this for a Bitcoin native audience specifically.
Predyx?
Always happy to see new tools that leverage the LN, but predicting what the bitcoin price will do in the next 30 seconds sounds more like trying to predict where our drunken sailor will go left or right after leaving the pub (aka, a random walk).
Will you be adding other markets to bet on?
The short-term BTC markets are intentionally our starting point because they're simple, fast, and work well with Lightning's instant settlement capabilities.
It's true that over very short timeframes, price action can look a lot like a random walk. For many users, the appeal isn't necessarily that they have a predictive edge but it's that they can participate in a market, get a result in seconds, and settle instantly in Bitcoin without needing a bank account or going through a lengthy onboarding process.
As for Predyx, it's great to see more projects exploring Lightning-powered prediction markets. Our focus is on creating the smoothest possible Lightning-native experience, from funding to settlement.
And yes, we're exploring additional market types beyond short-term BTC price action. The broader vision is to expand into other prediction and event-based markets while keeping the same instant, Lightning-first user experience.
7 years of shitcoinery
More like, 7 years of learning across multiple ecosystems