TL:DR
Dodge Momentum Index Slows 2% In JuneDodge Momentum Index Slows 2% In June
Data Center Growth Cools from Record Pace, Planning Activity Remains Strong
BOSTON, MA – July 8, 2026 — The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, fell 1.9% in June to 271.7 (2000=100) from the upwardly revised May reading of 277.1. Over the month, commercial planning declined 6.8% and institutional planning momentum grew 10.9%.
“Despite June’s pullback, nonresidential planning remains on solid ground,” said Sarah Martin, Director of Economic Research at Dodge Construction Network. “Data center activity continued to drive the Index, but its pace moderated from the extraordinary levels seen in recent months and drove the DMI to pull back over the month. Otherwise, planning activity accelerated across nearly every other sector.”
Within the commercial portion of the Index, slowing data center planning momentum drove this month’s decline. Meanwhile, planning activity for traditional office buildings, warehouses, retail stores and hotels improved. On the institutional side, healthcare planning continued to accelerate in May, alongside recreational, government and religious building activity. Educational planning slowed down for the second consecutive month. Year-over-year, the DMI was up 21.8% when compared to June 2025. Both the commercial and institutional segments were up also 21.8% over the same period. When removing data centers, the commercial segment would be up 7.6% from year-ago levels.
A total of 59 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout June. The largest commercial projects included the $500 million Stak Energy AI Data Center Campus in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, the $480 million Project Swan Data Center Complex in Lakeland, Florida, and the $456.8 million Parcel A Data Center in Manassas, Virginia. The largest institutional planning projects included the $437 million DCSO Correctional Facility (Replacement) in Nashville, Tennessee, the $320 million Cone Health Hospital in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, and the $303 million El Camino Health Hospital in Los Gatos, California.
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
My Thoughts 💭My Thoughts 💭
It appears data centers are cooling off but planning is picking up in other sectors! Hotels, hospitals, retail. This looks like a good sign for the economy. Confidence is coming back! Once this AI boom dies off I expect labor wages for construction to compress a bit.
Remember @simplestacker's point about hospitals being a driver of growth isn't great. They aren't so much productive in and of themselves as they are a remediation of social problems.
In other words, it's not clear that more hospitals mean more prosperity, because if people were healthier we'd have fewer of them and people would be better off and be able to put those resources elsewhere.
Construction growth?! Hospitals are huge capital projects. Plus most hospitals are LARPing as outpatient clinic. Lastly America’s infrastructure is in shambles. Hospital projects could be replacing old facilities that fail current fire safety codes and other codes/regulations to make sure they don’t fall into squalor.
All of that's fine but beside the point. It's a lot of activity going towards ends that are more like symptom management (if not an outright grift).
That it's good for the construction sector is akin to a broken window being good for the local glazier.
But even the grift comes with high salaries. The pills don’t dispense themselves (yet!).
Government salaries can be high, too. That doesn't mean they're good for the overall economy.
What matters is what else could be done with those resources. The medical system is highly subsidized and distorted, so it's very unlikely for it to be economically efficient.
We all need healthcare. I agree that its current form is corrupted by enrollment caps imposed by medical schools and the disparity in pay between CEOs and healthcare providers. However, I believe that healthcare is a benefit in maintaining people’s health when an ailment does occur. Additionally, the general idea of having a place to go if something goes wrong is crucial.
The point is more subtle than that. Given all the mal-aligned incentives, a hospital may be the best use for the space but this system that is leading to so much demand for medical services is making us poorer.
It's not about whether health care is a good or not. The idea of economic growth is supposed to represent greater prosperity, not just expending more resources for the same or worse outcomes.
So it’s the current system that inhibits growth not the act of keeping humans alive is what I am gathering.