The social function that I like best is the wealth transfer from people who are wrong about stuff to people who are right about stuff. That’s been going in the wrong direction for a while.

> Prediction markets can be more efficient than those in many cases, so their economic gains are from reducing transactions costs in existing markets.

and it's decentralized and open/transparent and via Predyx, obviously bitcoin-based. _When is Kalshi acquiring Predyx?!_

...and yes, I'm learning. It takes some warming up to it... freaking Robin Hanson has been shouting about this for a decade, so I mean gimme a break! :)

denlillaapan

Your point about travel insurance is how I largely think about prediction markets.

There are large industries that exist by charging a spread in zero sum games: namely insurance and gambling.

Prediction markets can be more efficient than those in many cases, so their economic gains are from reducing transactions costs in existing markets.

Politics_And_Law

econ

How to Hedge A Real-World Event with Kalshi (WSJ, Elias Schisgall)

Your point about travel insurance is how I largely think about prediction markets. 

There are large industries that exist by charging a spread in zero sum games: namely insurance and gambling. 

Prediction markets can be more efficient than those in many cases, so their economic gains are from reducing transactions costs in existing markets.