Some airline could experiment with refund policies that they back up against the prediction market.

An insurer might not offer them a policy since it’s in their power to cause cancellations.

Undisciplined

precisely. Maybe there could be various levels -- 10%/1%/0.1% of flights? That would shrink the gap quite a bit. Again, 

 ever-echoed point about granular liquidity here is gonna be a problem

Politics_And_Law

econ

How to Hedge A Real-World Event with Kalshi (WSJ, Elias Schisgall)

denlillaapan

precisely. Maybe there could be various levels -- 10%/1%/0.1% of flights? That would shrink the gap quite a bit. Again, @Undisciplined ever-echoed point about granular liquidity here is gonna be a problem