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What do you think of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket?

Mostly, I have been very happy. But it is mixed.

Good things:

  • Brought "prediction markets" concept significantly into the mainstream
  • Advertising, lobbying, huge $$ backing -- all of this gives prediction markets more cultural power
  • Vindication for me, having backed this idea for 20 years -- I always knew it would be big

Some bad things:

  • Overfocus on sports gambling -- this will probably lead to horrible backlash, as it did with cigarette smoking.
  • Blurring (unfortunately) the line between "investing" and "gambling" -- this is something I had hoped would go the opposite way.
  • Very slow to adopt conditional markets -- should have been in there by Year 2. And even now, they are just imitations of parlays. Very disappointing! Huge missed opportunity to take the moral an intellectual high ground.
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he has mentioned that truthcoin can do more, in a self custodied more cencorship resistant way. PM just now introduced conditional bets

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Watch the presentations at https://bitcoinhivemind.com/.

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