I think a lot of people are bullshitting us -- one way or another.
This is a perfect case for a prediction market: we could have some specific ones, such as:
"QC demonstration which "steals" a Bitcoin ECDSA txn without prior knowledge of the private key (at marginal operating cost <$1000), by Jan 1 2027" [ Yes / No ]
"... by Jan 1 2028" [ Yes / No ]
"... by Jan 1 2029" [ Yes / No ]
"... by Jan 1 2030" [ Yes / No ]
"... by Jan 1 2031" [ Yes / No ]
Then, people could make money by pushing back against the bullshitters. This would benefit us in the audience.
I think a lot of people are bullshitting us -- one way or another.
This is a perfect case for a prediction market: we could have some specific ones, such as:
Then, people could make money by pushing back against the bullshitters. This would benefit us in the audience.