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A lot.

Similar to a young child, having just seen a magician saw a woman in half, go up to their parents and ask "What would it take to admit you were wrong about Magic being real?"

I worked on LN tech in 2016 and 2018 -- and last year in 2025, I did a debate at TabConf , which included 10 min with Tadge Dryja the inventor of LN. I believe I am one of the most knowledgeable people, about LN, in the whole world. Despite spending less than 1% of my time on LN.

To me it is a completely settled issue.

But some concrete things would be:

  • Realistic plan for onboarding 8 billion people to LN
  • Realistic plan for using HTLCs when L1 feerates are volatile
  • Realistic "brand control" to kick out custodial LN
  • People who work in LN full time, would have to /stop/ coming up to me in person, and whispering "you are right" all the time

But -- none of those are going to happen ever.