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I agree with you a bit, however, "this time is different" is usually where good theses go to die. But I think the mechanism behind past cycles genuinely doesn't apply the same way anymore.
The old boom-bust cycles were driven by leveraged retail speculation and weak-handed holders cycling in and out on halving narratives. That's just not who owns the marginal supply now. ETFs rebalance on flows, not narratives. Corporates hold as treasury policy, not a trade. When a big enough chunk of supply sits with entities that aren't exiting on the old 4-year clock, the selling pressure that made past bears so brutal just isn't there in the same size.
There is still room for a bear market. I just don't think it looks like the last one, and I don't think the old playbook predicts its depth anymore.
I tend to agree. Every cycle has had its own unique narrative, but this is the first one where institutional ownership has become such a meaningful part of the supply picture. That doesn't eliminate bear markets, but it could change their depth and duration.
I'm still hesitant to dismiss history entirely, though. Markets have a way of humbling anyone who says, "this time is different."