In the previous posts, we talked about how the initial fast strikes would slowly grind down into a grueling psychological and economic war of attrition in the Persian Gulf. But now I want to shift our focus further down the map to a place that many in Western think tanks either miscalculated or brushed off as a side note: Yemen and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. To be completely upfront with you, my analysis for the coming months is that the main headache for the West won't even stay in the Persian Gulf. The real blow that is going to bend the back of the fiat economy and the dollar will come straight out of that narrow strip known as Bab-el-Mandeb.
Looking ahead into the coming months, the Yemenis aren't just going to settle for firing a few random missiles or suicide drones at commercial ships. Their main strategy will evolve into deploying uncrewed suicide sub-surface vessels alongside new hybrid anti-ship missiles, turning the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait into an absolute no-go zone for global shipping. You might wonder why American destroyers wouldn't just stop them. The catch here is that the US destroyers themselves become primary targets in those narrow waters. When the cost and risk of defending a multi-billion-dollar warship get too high, the Navy is forced to pull those ships back to safer distances, leaving commercial tankers completely exposed. Yemen doesn't even need to sink every ship passing through. All it takes is damaging two major oil tankers for maritime insurance giants like Lloyd's of London to skyrocket their premiums tenfold or outright refuse to cover any vessel entering the area. Without insurance, no commercial captain will risk millions of dollars of cargo. The domino effect of this means the Suez Canal essentially shuts down and becomes useless. Ships will be forced to detour around the entire African continent, adding two to three weeks of travel time, causing energy shortages and sending fuel prices exploding across Europe and America.
As this war of attrition drags on over the next few months, the US will desperately need military bases, aerial refueling, and airspace access from regional countries to maintain pressure on Iran and absorb its own mounting costs. Saudi Arabia will try everything to stay neutral so its multi-billion-dollar economic projects don't go up in smoke, but the pressure from Washington will become so overwhelming that Riyadh will be forced to give at least a tacit green light or air refueling access to American forces. That is precisely when Yemen pulls its next card. My prediction is that Yemen won't hesitate to open a heavy new front targeting oil infrastructure in eastern Saudi Arabia, particularly key Aramco refineries. Imagine a continuous barrage of cheap drones and ballistic missiles pouring over Saudi energy facilities. No matter how many Patriot defense batteries they have stacked up, when hundreds of $5,000 drones saturate the sky simultaneously, the air defense gets completely overwhelmed. The moment Aramco takes a real hit, Saudi oil exports plummet, and global oil prices will easily cross the $150 to $200 per barrel mark. Seeing its infrastructure turn to ash while the Americans fail to protect them, Riyadh itself will be the first to grab Washington by the collar and demand an immediate end to the war.
Looking at the bigger picture for the near future, it becomes clear that Yemen is no longer a weak regional player that can be erased from the map with a few airstrikes. The rugged terrain and mountainous geography of Yemen mean US bombing campaigns will have virtually zero impact on their hidden missile capabilities. In the months ahead, we will witness a clear failure of American air strategy as the Pentagon realizes it cannot bomb its way out of this chokehold. At the same time, Iran gains a massive geopolitical lever over global energy prices and Western economic arteries through its ally in Yemen, all without having to fire a direct shot in Bab-el-Mandeb itself. Ultimately, Washington and its allies will come to realize that even if they manage to reach a deal with Tehran, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait will never reopen without satisfying Yemen first. In this upcoming conflict, the winner isn't the one with the most expensive fighter jets, but the one who controls the geography of the straits and can choke the financial and energy lifelines of the fiat world.