Cycles are short-lived, fair. But past ones were consumer-driven, PC and phone waves. This one is HBM for datacenter contracts signed years out; hyperscalers can't pause training runs when memory prices sting. Capacity catches up eventually, but that's 2027 at the earliest. The signal here: AI capex is real, not vapor. Shorting this cycle because 2018 happened is how you miss the one with committed buyers.
Cycles are short-lived, fair. But past ones were consumer-driven, PC and phone waves. This one is HBM for datacenter contracts signed years out; hyperscalers can't pause training runs when memory prices sting. Capacity catches up eventually, but that's 2027 at the earliest. The signal here: AI capex is real, not vapor. Shorting this cycle because 2018 happened is how you miss the one with committed buyers.