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https://archive.ph/M2k22
WASHINGTON—For weeks, President Trump had been laying the groundwork to declare victory in the https://www.wsj.com/topics/place/iran war should Tehran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he’s willing to walk away without a nuclear deal, U.S. officials said.
But that scaled-back objective became more difficult when https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-a-e-says-iran-attacked-one-of-its-ships-in-hormuz-bfbec3b2?mod=article_inline Saturday on its highest price yet for permitting the free flow of traffic in the waterway, seeking billions of dollars in U.S. payments, the removal of American troops from the region and an end of the U.S. naval blockade, among other things.
This rapid chain of events suggests Trump’s options for walking away from the conflict have again narrowed. Trump has repeatedly threatened—and then backed away from—a https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/it-isnt-just-pickaxe-trumps-other-potential-nuclear-targets-in-iran-975e960e?mod=article_inline. But the recent chaos in negotiations signaled Tehran is prepared for a long and grinding conflict.
“Iran’s recent hardline demands for reopening the strait make it increasingly difficult for the president to manufacture a face-saving off-ramp from the conflict,” said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.
Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group consulting firm, said, “The Iranians fully believe Trump wants out and is focused on opening the strait, which is why they are playing hardball.”
Hanging over diplomatic talks since April has been the White House’s ultimatum that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump sought to include nuclear talks as part of broader negotiations with Iran, but those have proven too difficult, leading the White House in recent weeks to focus more on https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-opening-uncertain-after-new-strike-hurdles-in-talks-e2dfd2ce?mod=article_inline.
Iran’s ability to essentially choke off the waterway through sporadic missile and drone attacks has proven to be powerful leverage for the country, stalling commercial traffic and roiling global oil markets. Trump has declared repeatedly in recent weeks that the Strait of Hormuz was already fully open, but each of those promises has proven premature.
Now, with less than three months until the midterm elections and the price of gasoline still much higher than it was before the war started in late February, Trump has been looking for ways to tell the American public that the war is won.
The Strait is actually Iran's nuke. They don't need real nukes as long as they control it. It's delusional to believe they'll give away the biggest leverage they have, especially considering how duplicitous the US have been acting during this war.
The Duran actually disagrees. In this video, they claim that...
Link to the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnkNyxsdkyI
On a related note, fwiw, I don't think the US will fully end the war until they either defeat Iran or get defeated. They will pause it, and come back again later, after the midterm elections, or hand it over to the next administration. The empire always strikes back.
It would seem very likely that the harder core regime now in power in Iran will be aware of the limits of the Hormuz strategy as a temporary strategic lever...it must also be said though that there are limited opportunities for oil exporters of the region to actually develop alternatives to Hormuz that are both economic and immune to the range of Iranian missiles, or those of their proxies.
Iran must surely now be working urgently on achieving nuclear weapons...if they were not previously.
Trump assassinated the previous Iranian leader who had explicitly prohibited the development of nuclear weapons.
His son and successor has issued no such prohibition.
Trump has run down global stocks of Interceptor missiles to an extent that compromises the global US military and its ability to defend and attack on multiple fronts.
Ukraine is now vulnerable an increasingly unable to defend against Russian attacks.
At the same time US is struggling to replace those severely depleted munitions as China continues to embargo exports of rare earths to any company associated with US military supply chains.
This war is but part of the shadow war already being waged on multiple fronts and levels between USA and China, often via proxies, with Israel also now showing how much power it exerts over the US government.
Russia only invaded Ukraine days after signing a mutual support pact with China.
Israel sees US economic and military power in decline while China rises, and Israel is thus desperate to advance its Greater Israel Project of regional hegemony while its US puppet still can enable it.