Hey Snackers,

All great consumer freakouts happen twice: the first time as farce, and the second time, well, they’re still a farce   

Surging prices, dwindling supply, and hoarding of a household basic. The Covid-induced Great Toiler Paper Freak Out of 2020 – far from one of the more significant hardships of the pandemic – could possibly return as a trade-war induced variant. A large amount of US toilet paper is made in America, but a huge amount of the raw paper pulp used to manufacture it comes from Canada.

And in the spiralling US-Canada trade war, Canada is now set to put a 2-50% tariff on US-made toilet paper and facial tissue in response to US tariff hikes on imported Canadian paper goods. US retailers like Costco are likely to be hit with higher costs: the bulk-goods purveyor sources the majority of its paper products from Canada, the Guardian reports. Procter & Gamble, which owns Charmin, said last year it was raising prices in part due to tariffs. 

Stocks dipped ever so slightly on Wednesday. 

Nvidia singlehandedly organized a generational tech boom. Wall Street wants to know, “but what have you done for me lately?” Wednesday’s answer was, “a lot.”

Nvidia releases better-than-expected quarterly earnings and the stock falls afterwards. If that sounds a bit familiar, there’s a good reason: going into Wednesday’s aftermarket earnings release, that is precisely what has happened for each of the last four quarters, as Sherwood News’ Luke Kawa wrote in the Entrypoint newsletter. 

At first, nothing much seemed to have changed: Nvidia reported earnings per share of $2.22 and revenue of $96.22 billion after the market closed yesterday afternoon, ahead of Wall Street’s expectations of $2.10 in earnings per share and $92.17 billion in revenue. In response, the stock dipped. 

But then, Nvidia’s chief financial officer Collette Kress dropped a bombshell. On the company’s post-earnings conference calls, she said executives expected the company’s fiscal-year 2028 revenue to rise by a staggering 70%, a massive increase over the analyst consensus of 45%, as tabulated by Bloomberg. And that huge increase, Kress noted, was despite a “supply constrained outlook.” In other words, if supply constraints ease, things could be even better. 

In response, the shares turned green after hours. 

The Takeaway 

Heading into Nvidia’s earnings, investors might not yet have been taking the AI boom for granted, but they are at least getting very used to it. Entrypoint cited Joseph Niles of Macro Risk Advisors pointing out that the implied move for Nvidia shares ahead of its earnings release was “the lowest in the AI era.” Investors had arguably been stuck on a bit of a hedonic treadmill, and a combination of muted performance heading into earnings and the Krees bombshell of operation optimism seems to have recalibrated Wall Street’s tastebuds.

— Ben Walsh

The building blocks of global toy dominance

… and it’s not being complacent. After reporting record revenue for the first half of the year, the Danish toy builder says it’s increasing investments in sustainability and new products like “software-enabled bricks,” the Financial Times reports. 

Snacks Shots

• 🏈 CFL: As we head into Week 13 of the CFL season and just two months to go until the playoffs, the Montreal Alouettes have the best chance of hoisting the Grey Cup with a 37% chance*, according to markets, followed by the Saskatchewan Roughriders with a 20% chance and the Edmonton Elks with a 19% shot. 
• 🎬 Coyote vs. Acme: The verdict is in, and the new movie “Coyote vs. Acme” looks pretty good; markets are currently pricing in a  94% chance it comes in with a Rotten Tomatoes score north of 92. The film is finally being released by Ketchup Entertainment after Warner Bros. attempted to kill the movie for a tax benefit. 

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.

That’s how much social media giant Meta has agreed to pay in a settlement with 47 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. territories. The settlement effectively ends the recently-begun federal trial where California and other states alleged that the Facebook and Instagram owner violated child protection laws.  

What else we’re Snackin’ 

• Robotaxis are real now — so is the pushback. As more robotaxis hit the road, the fight over the rules governing the technology is intensifying.
• A breakthrough pancreatic cancer drug marks a new era for treatment. Since last year, pharma companies have announced 24 final-stage trials for medicines targeting the disease.
• Apple sets iPhone launch event for Sept. 9, first under new CEO John Ternus
• Bill Gates wants to see* a robot tax and ‘Human Reserved’ jobs to mitigate harms from AI
• Australia's social media ban for teens is going, uh, pretty badly

Snack Fact of the Day

Sharks, often thought of as lone predators, can have friends. The BBC reports that a study of sharks off the coast of Fiji found that adult bull sharks have social partners of their choosing, often selecting buddies that are a similar size to themselves. The perks of 

selachian friendship include learning new skills and finding mates. 

Thursday

Dollar Tree and Dollar General slated to release results premarket. Results from Marvell Technology, Workday,SentinelOne, Affirm, and Ulta Beauty due out postmarket