We already mock this group as being “professionally wrong”. What I’m pointing out is that the emerging incentives will push further in that direction. 

I’m agnostic about how deep and ubiquitous markets will become.

Couple of reasons...

Sometimes the raw prediction matters less than the "why" of it... and commentators could supply some of that "why"

But bigger reason is ultimately I don't trust prediction markets as much as you guys.  With or without insider trading, I don't anticipate there being enough liquidity to have reliable real time signals

SimpleStacker

I get it. The commentariat are there for narrative construction and maintenance.

In a world where everyone is dabbling in prediction markets though, won’t it be more natural to wonder why you should listen to some random jabroni who doesn’t even put his money where his mouth is?

the_stacker_muse

BooksAndArticles

econ

The Social Value of Prediction Markets (TDE, Joakim Book)

denlillaapan

Those who can’t do…

I get it. The commentariat are there for narrative construction and maintenance. 

In a world where everyone is dabbling in prediction markets though, won’t it be more natural to wonder why you should listen to some random jabroni who doesn’t even put his money where his mouth is?