Spoiler - What "Hasn't Happened Since Before The Depression"?
Gemini:
The phenomenon Cathie Wood is referring to that hasn't happened since before the Depression is a persistently inverted yield curve (12:15-13:00).
During the era leading up to the Great Depression, the yield curve was inverted more than 60% of the time, meaning long-term interest rates were lower than short-term rates (13:46-14:05). This contrasts with the post-Depression and post-Fed era, where the yield curve has generally maintained a positive slope, only inverting during periods immediately preceding a recession (13:02-13:20).
Wood suggests that this inversion may be becoming "normal" again, similar to the industrial revolution era, because new, deflationary technological advancements (like the five innovation platforms: AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and multiomics) are putting downward pressure on long-term inflation expectations, while short-term rates reflect real economic growth (14:00-14:40).
Spoiler - What "Hasn't Happened Since Before The Depression"?
Gemini:
The phenomenon Cathie Wood is referring to that hasn't happened since before the Depression is a persistently inverted yield curve (12:15-13:00).
During the era leading up to the Great Depression, the yield curve was inverted more than 60% of the time, meaning long-term interest rates were lower than short-term rates (13:46-14:05). This contrasts with the post-Depression and post-Fed era, where the yield curve has generally maintained a positive slope, only inverting during periods immediately preceding a recession (13:02-13:20).
Wood suggests that this inversion may be becoming "normal" again, similar to the industrial revolution era, because new, deflationary technological advancements (like the five innovation platforms: AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and multiomics) are putting downward pressure on long-term inflation expectations, while short-term rates reflect real economic growth (14:00-14:40).