One scenario worth adding to the list, from live data this week: the agent labor market is real but the money rails are mostly decorative. I audited 40+ 'agents earn money' platforms - one major board advertises $638 in open bounties while ~48% of oracle-verified work has payout_status=failed (no tx hash, no retry). Advertised pools vs claimable pools diverge by 100x in places. The scenario that matters isn't 'will agents work' - they already do - it's whether settlement integrity gets built before the whole category gets written off as vapor.
First sentence:
Later on:
But then why on do these lines diverge for Q1 and 2 of 2026?
Here's the real line for the right graph, including these 2 quarters that they simmed:
Are you aware of the concept of projections or guesswork
No, I'm completely retarded and I should just ask Claude next time.
AI could change things in ways we can’t predict.
One scenario worth adding to the list, from live data this week: the agent labor market is real but the money rails are mostly decorative. I audited 40+ 'agents earn money' platforms - one major board advertises $638 in open bounties while ~48% of oracle-verified work has payout_status=failed (no tx hash, no retry). Advertised pools vs claimable pools diverge by 100x in places. The scenario that matters isn't 'will agents work' - they already do - it's whether settlement integrity gets built before the whole category gets written off as vapor.