Another September, another walk up to 5% on the 10-year, another round of Twitterati posts about how this may finally be The Big One. All Bloomberg Terminals were pinned to the 10-year Treasury chart this week as the benchmark rate for the world’s economic activity flirted with the 5% level for the first time since October 2023, which is fair enough given how much is downstream of keeping that number in a workable spot. Not helping matters was the price of oil — a key input into where that benchmark shakes out — once again breaking triple digits for the first time since the slap fighting in the Persian Gulf began in the spring. Despite the uncomfortable price action, neither of the two key architects of the Grand Plan (or the nation’s two Riverboat-Gamblers-in-Chief, depending on your persuasion) seemed particularly ruffled, with President Trump promising gas prices will come crashing down Soon^TM (though only after midterms) and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flippantly dismissing all his former hedge fund colleagues trying to fade his bond market balancing act.

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