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It's the low liquidity low salience markets that I'm highly skeptical of.
On the salience point, markets on very low or very high probability events probably won't be very good because bettors won't find the mispricing to be worth the risk.
Something like will there be a 9+ point earthquake in Seattle this year is low probability, but whether it's 1% or 0.1% makes a huge difference to people because it would be such a catastrophic outcome.
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For high salience and high liquidity markets like presidential elections, I absolutely do believe that prediction markets can predict better than polling.
It's the low liquidity low salience markets that I'm highly skeptical of.