Nvidia’s 5-year CDS spread has risen from around 38 basis points at the end of 2025 to 82 now.

It has more than doubled in nine months—for a company with a net cash position and the best margins in the industry.

What the credit market is pricing in isn't the balance sheet; it’s commitment.

Supply agreements and cross-investments involving AI customers create exposure to counterparties that finance their chip purchases with debt.

If capex slows down, the risk ripples back through the supply chain.