Dan Schnur is a US-based political analyst, commentator and academic, and has extensive experience working on national and state-level election campaigns, including as national communication director for Senator John McCain’s 2000 presidential campaign.

OPINION: The extent to which Donald Trump is or will soon become a lame duck president is about to consume Washington. Even before the midterm elections, a steadily increasing number of Republicans are becoming noticeably more comfortable distancing themselves from the president – on Iran, on inflation, on artificial intelligence and a growing number of other issues.

A GOP elected official who publicly disagreed with him would have once elicited a volcanic eruption of presidential ire and a possible primary opponent. These days, the same disloyalty barely draws a presidential shrug.

As his poll numbers continue to decline, more of his party’s candidates are skipping his events when he comes to their states or asking him not to come altogether. His presence in swing states has become so problematic that this week he will be travelling to Alabama, which has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976, and Oklahoma, which has not supported a Democrat for president since 1964.

This trend will dramatically accelerate after the midterms, especially if the Democrats regain a majority in one or both houses of Congress. It’s impossible to envision a Democratic Congress working with the White House on almost any significant legislation, and the almost-certain cascade of congressional investigations against alleged administration misconduct will effectively freeze the national governing process through the 2028 presidential election.

But leaders from other parts of the world are not waiting even that long before they begin implementing their plans for a post-Trump universe. We saw an indication of this shift last week during the United Nations General Assembly proceedings, where his speech to the assembled delegates was taken for what it was, a message to his domestic political base in which he bragged about Venezuela and Greenland and repeated previous threats toward Iran and Cuba.

While US military strength and economic influence required other world leaders to meet with him, the lack of either progress or outcome from most of these discussions was glaringly obvious.

Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney at the United Nations during its recent general assembly, where Dan Schnur says he had a greater impact than Trump.Photo: Justin Tang / Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP

If you had told me six months ago that the Prime Minister of Canada would have a greater impact on a UN assemblage than the President of the United States, I’m not sure I would have believed you. But there was Mark Carney continuing his efforts to orchestrate the so-called middle-powers into a unified global force. And there was Trump, revisiting his previous promise to “annihilate” Iran.

The clicking of Trump’s political clock got much louder later in the week, when Chinese President Xi Jinping travelled to Washington for the first time in more than a decade. Normal protocol calls for the US president to welcome foreign leaders when they arrive at the White House. But in an extremely unusual display of deference, Trump went to the airport to greet Xi’s plane when it landed. The next few days provided several additional indicators as to how much the power dynamic between the two countries has changed.

In fact, this was the first meeting in history between the US and China when it was clear that the Americans no longer possess the upper hand in this relationship. Some of this new imbalance is a result of Trump’s ill-fated trade war last year that resulted in China threatening to withhold the rare-earth minerals that much of the world relies on for its technological and military needs.
The more confrontational US approach to international diplomacy seems to have bolstered Xi as well. But the Chinese leader, who will almost certainly hold power until his death, also recognises that Trump’s time in office is much more finite.

I’ll admit that I may have overestimated Xi before his arrival (or maybe I underestimated him). I assumed the Chinese leader would agree to some type of trade deal that the White House could try to sell inflation-battered voters as the election neared and wondered what type of private concessions on Taiwan or other issues Trump would be forced to make. But Xi didn’t even give Trump that minimal political gift. The exceedingly small agreement that came out of their meetings was so insignificant that it barely received any public or media attention. Trump’s biggest takeaway from the summit may end up being the conservative anger toward the Chinese flags flying over the White House.

The summaries of their private meetings told a similar story. White House advisers announced that Trump had told Xi that China should no longer provide military assistance to Iran, a request which Xi is likely to ignore.

Meanwhile, Chinese sources let it be known that Xi had pressed Trump to formally oppose Taiwan’s independence. Let’s see what we learn about those two conversations as more details become public. But it’s a safe bet that Trump will be giving more than receiving.
And that Xi is already turning his attention to who might be Trump’s successor.