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Iraqi leader sets June 30 deadline for pro-Iran factions to disarm

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi on Thursday confirmed June 30, 2027, as the new deadline for armed factions in the country - many of which are backed by Iran - to turn over their weapons to the state, following the end of the U.S.-led coalition's mission in the country. Iraq had previously set Sept. 30 this year as the deadline for the groups' disarmament, hoping for it to coincide with the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country. 

That previous deadline, according to al-Zaidi, is now a starting point.

"October 1 is considered a serious beginning to address the issue of weapons outside state control ... according to a clear roadmap and agreed timelines extending no later than June 30, 2027," he said in a statement. He had told The New York Times last week that the groups should be disbanded by June 2027. 

The Iraqi government believes the withdrawal of coalition forces will deprive the armed factions, including Shiite Muslim groups considered proxies of Iranian power, of the excuse they have used to retain their arsenal.

But many fear the pullout could boost the factions instead, and draw the country deeper into the Iran war.

"The majority of Iraqis doubt the ability of the security and military apparatus to maintain security in the country, whether regarding the prevention of external aggressions and attacks or internal movements by armed groups operating outside state control of the government," journalist and regional political analyst Saman Noah told CBS News on Wednesday. 

That is "especially true given that experience has proven the government's inability to subject these [Iran-backed] groups to state decision-making, control their behavior or hold their members accountable," he said. 

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has long worked directly and openly with some of the Iraqi factions, welcomed the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as a "historic victory" and vowed to "continue to stand alongside the peoples of the region who seek justice and oppose oppression."

In July, the U.S. and Saudi militaries launched airstrikes on Iranian-backed groups in Iraq after they allegedly targeted American forces in the region.

CBS/AFP

In a little bit of a twist here, I do see how there is a possibility, albeit a small one, that this could, in fact, work. The main point that the militias have made under the now-former deadline was that Western troops, in particular the U.S., are still stationed in the country. With that issue now gone, these militias have lost their unifying issue, and without it, not only will it be an issue for them to stay armed, but to stay unified in their messaging as well.

I can see people thinking that the U.S. might be pulled into a civil war once the June 30th deadline passes, but there are actually two groups that would have a solid chance of being able to handle an armed uprising breaking out. The first is the Kurds. They could let the South and Western parts of Iraq just duke it out and keep their areas safe and secure, especially since they do have such a high level of autonomy.

The other player is Turkey. Let's say fighting breaks out, and it looks like Iraq is going to be torn apart. Well, for Turkey, that might be the worst thing that could happen because of the Kurdish population. Turkey already has an issue with their Turkish community wanting independence, and we saw what happened in Syria to that Kurdish population. Turkey has also made it very, very clear that they want to be the superpower of the Middle East, and to do that, you have to be able to impose your will on your neighbors. They did it in Syria, and if they have a chance to embarrass Iran again, that is something I think they would happily take advantage of.

The last point I want to make covers Iran itself. Over the last year, the Regime has taken blow after blow after blow. Just look at their proxies and where they were 2 years ago, and look at them now.... It's been a bad, bad time, and they invested billions in those groups. Currently, Iran just does not have the money to fund these groups or get them the gear/intel/support that they would need. Without the ability to ship their oil, Iran just flat-out does not have much to export. You can only truck so much, and with that you need neighbors who are willing to let your trucks cross, and we have seen the opposite happen. From oil to generate money to not only support but to rebuild damage to issues with their water supply Iran has many many issues it must face to be able to support their proxies.