Happy Saturday. Bear week once again! IPO leaks will this kill AI? Share your best stocks, stories, and strategies as we gear up for next week!
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Happy Saturday. Bear week once again! IPO leaks will this kill AI? Share your best stocks, stories, and strategies as we gear up for next week!
Did you know we've got Blackrock back in india again?
Nope I didn’t
Still bullish on:
Netflix
Nike
ELF
Celsius
AMD
AMD is king!
Ran a scenario: start with 1M sats ($845 at today's $84,511 BTC), 5 years to 2031. Assumptions: BTC compounds 40%/yr ($84.5k to ~$455k), the 10-year falls ~25bp a year from 5.2% to ~3.95% (never near the 3% floor), amplification ratios reset yearly per the Adam Livingston/True North framework.
On the real estate side: RH did roughly 8x from the March 2020 crash to the August 2021 peak as rates collapsed and housing went vertical. I modeled a milder repeat (3x over 5 years) since the rate move here is gentler. For O I used the video's own math: 5.8% yield + 2% dividend growth, plus a price rerate as its yield compresses with falling rates.
Takeaway: if BTC actually does 40% CAGR, nothing in real estate equity keeps up — the leveraged BTC treasuries lap the field, and even plain BTC doubles what a housing-boom RH scenario delivers. O is the tortoise: ~$1,300, paid monthly, while you sleep.
But flip it: if BTC does 0% for 5 years, ASST's 13% preferred dividend eats the common alive while O keeps mailing checks. The amplification cuts both ways. That's the whole bet in one table.
Caveats: treasury figures are NAV, not stock price (mNAV premium/discount moves the real return), MSTR's blended preferred rate is my ~9% estimate across STRC/STRK/STRF/STRD, and the RH/O numbers are scenario assumptions, not predictions.
Re-ran it with O's actual dividend stream modeled year by year. Starting point: $55.35/share, $3.24 annualized dividend (5.85% yield), growing 2%/yr per the video's model. The 10-year falls 25bp/yr (5.2% to 3.95%) and I held O's current 65bp spread to the 10-year constant, so its yield compresses to ~4.6% by 2031 and the price rerates.
O year-by-year: $3.30 + $3.37 + $3.44 + $3.51 + $3.58 = $17.20/share in dividends over 5 years. 2031 price = $3.58 / 4.6% = $77.70.
$845 buys 15.27 shares:
Updated table:
The dividend breakout changes O's story a bit: about 18% of its total return is cash in hand along the way ($263 on $845), which is the whole appeal — you're getting paid monthly while the rate cycle does its work. The other $1,186 depends on the market actually compressing O's yield as rates fall.
Ranking doesn't change though. If BTC does 40% CAGR, the leveraged treasuries lap everything, plain BTC doubles the housing-boom RH case, and O remains the sleep-well compounder. Different tools for different jobs.
Same scenario, but instead of a $845 lump sum: $25/week into each asset for 5 years ($6,500 total invested each). Same assumptions — BTC 40% CAGR, 10-year falling 25bp/yr, O's dividends modeled year by year as cash.
Notice the DCA drag: lump-sum ASST was 14.18x, but DCA is 5.00x on invested cash — because your later $25 buys happen at much higher prices. That's the cost of spreading entries into a ripper. Flip side: if BTC chop or crashes mid-period, DCA buys the dips and the gap narrows.
O's angle gets better in DCA form: $917 in cash dividends collected along the way (about 14% of your total contributions back in hand), plus 100 shares now worth $7,784 after the rate-driven rerate.
Ranking is unchanged: leveraged BTC treasuries on top, plain BTC next, then the real estate equity plays. The question the table is really asking: do you believe BTC does 40% a year for 5 more years? If yes, the treasuries are the trade. If no, O's $917 in mailbox money starts looking a lot more interesting.
Bought:
AXP
Netflix
RH
Celsius
Thinks housing is going to turn around and RH can triple!
some very good buys
Pulled this from an Adam Livingston video on BTC treasury companies (he's working through True North's material) and it reframed how I look at these stocks.
The metric that matters isn't just how much BTC a company holds — it's the "amplification ratio": preferred notional divided by Bitcoin value. That ratio is what turns BTC moves into common-stock moves.
The example: $1B in BTC backed by $400M in preferreds = 40% amplification. If BTC gains 50%, common NAV doesn't gain 50% — it gains 76.7% (after paying the 10% preferred dividend). The formula: (50% − 40% × 10%) ÷ (1 − 40%).
Over 4 years of +50% BTC annually, 40% amplification compounds to +874% on common NAV. At 60% amplification it's +1,844%. And the dividend rate barely matters — 99.34% of the variance in their model comes from the amplification ratio, not the dividend.
But it cuts both ways: a 20% BTC drop becomes a 65% NAV loss at 60% amplification. Leverage is leverage.
The part that stuck with me: the return has to be financed. To keep the ratio constant as BTC grows, these companies must issue more preferred every single year. Their fictional "Company C" would need to go from $6B to $103.9B in preferreds by 2030 — nearly $98B in new capital. That's the real question for these stocks: not the BTC thesis, but whether the market keeps funding the preferreds.
Size changes the funding challenge. The ratio changes the modeled return.
I ran the numbers at $84,511 BTC:
ASST (Strive): 27,462 BTC ($2.32B) backed by $1.22B in SATA preferreds = ~53% amplification
MSTR (Strategy): 847,666 BTC ($71.6B) backed by ~$15B in preferreds = ~21% amplification
XXI (Twenty One): 43,514 BTC ($3.68B), zero preferreds = 0% amplification
ASST is the leverage play — closest to the video's fictional "Company C." MSTR is de-levering (Saylor's been buying back STRC). XXI is pure unlevered BTC exposure.
Ran a scenario: liquidate 1M sats ($845) and buy ASST. If BTC compounds at 40% a year through 2031 ($84.5k → ~$455k), the video's formula gives ASST common NAV ~70% a year: (40% − 53% × 13%) ÷ (1 − 53%). Over 5 years that's ~14.2x — the $845 becomes roughly $12,000. The same sats held as BTC would be ~$4,545.
Two caveats: that's NAV, not the stock price — whatever premium or discount ASST trades at when you buy and sell changes the real return. And the treadmill from the video still applies: to hold 53% amplification while BTC 5x's, ASST has to keep issuing more SATA every year. The return is real, but it has to be financed.
Watched a good breakdown on Realty Income (O) from at Value-Investing and it clicked why this thing has gone nowhere for 5 years.
It's a rates story, not a business story. When the 10-year was at 2%, O's ~4% dividend yield looked great. Now the 10-year's at 5.2% and O has to yield ~7.5% to compete — so the price sat flat while the yield repriced. The business itself never broke.
The machine underneath: 98.8% occupancy (never below 96% since 1992), 673 consecutive monthly dividends, 14% annualized total return since the 1994 listing — nearly 2x the S&P 500. $89B enterprise value, 15,588 properties, investment-grade balance sheet (A3/A-/A), debt laddered out past 2036, 91.8% fixed rate.
The video ran a dividend discount model: probability-weighted intrinsic value ~$53 vs $55.35 current price. So not a screaming bargain — roughly fairly valued here.
The bull case is simple: 5.8% yield + ~2% growth = 8-10% total return, and if rates come back down, the yield compresses and the price rerates higher. The bear watch: interest expense is climbing ($604M vs $552M last year) and AFFO growth is modest at ~$4.44/share.
Key risk in one word from the video: recession. Ugly economy = tenants under pressure. But grocery stores and dollar stores (their top tenants) tend to hold up fine in downturns.
O isn't a BTC-treasury rocket — it's the opposite end of the portfolio. Boring, monthly, and built to survive whatever rates do.
British explains why financial engineering and using the equity markets is a better bitcoin treasury play than bitcoin business that have a ton of drag (like the Bitcoin miners) and use profits to buy and hold bitcoin.
ASST is buying all the influencers 😂😂😂
What people are missing is this. It doesn’t matter how you get it. Get it while you can!! I don’t think Bitcoin will “run out” but it can get extremely difficult to acquire in the future
🤔🤔🤫🤫