Two things that I think get missed in this framing:
1. Template control in SV2 is a separate, optional piece. SV2 is really several sub-protocols. The encrypted, binary mining protocol is what most "SV2 support" means today. Miner-built templates need the Job Declaration protocol on top, and as Kruw says, a pool that runs JD can still refuse to pay for templates it doesn't like. So "SV2 adoption" and "hashers choose transactions" aren't the same metric. The second one is the one to watch.
2. Censorship doesn't need to be fixed at 100%, it needs to stay expensive. If pools with 70% of hashrate filtered a transaction, it would still confirm, just in about 3x the expected time. Censorship only really bites near majority hashrate. So the useful question isn't "will most hashers build templates?" but "will there always be enough non-filtering hashrate that filtering stays pointless?" That's a much lower bar, and miner-side templating (Ocean's DATUM, DEMAND's JD pool) already clears part of it without SV2 winning everywhere.
On incentives: I'd expect SV2 to spread for boring reasons first. Encryption stops hashrate hijacking on the wire, and there are bandwidth and latency gains. JD would come along later as an opt-in for the people who care, rather than as a mass response to some censorship event.
Two things that I think get missed in this framing:
1. Template control in SV2 is a separate, optional piece. SV2 is really several sub-protocols. The encrypted, binary mining protocol is what most "SV2 support" means today. Miner-built templates need the Job Declaration protocol on top, and as Kruw says, a pool that runs JD can still refuse to pay for templates it doesn't like. So "SV2 adoption" and "hashers choose transactions" aren't the same metric. The second one is the one to watch.
2. Censorship doesn't need to be fixed at 100%, it needs to stay expensive. If pools with 70% of hashrate filtered a transaction, it would still confirm, just in about 3x the expected time. Censorship only really bites near majority hashrate. So the useful question isn't "will most hashers build templates?" but "will there always be enough non-filtering hashrate that filtering stays pointless?" That's a much lower bar, and miner-side templating (Ocean's DATUM, DEMAND's JD pool) already clears part of it without SV2 winning everywhere.
On incentives: I'd expect SV2 to spread for boring reasons first. Encryption stops hashrate hijacking on the wire, and there are bandwidth and latency gains. JD would come along later as an opt-in for the people who care, rather than as a mass response to some censorship event.