Aggregate net long positions rose to around $33 billion—near the cycle high—according to CFTC data through October 6.

What stands out to me is the speed of this shift. In early 2026, this positioning was net short by more than $20 billion. Within just a few months, it flipped to the exact opposite extreme.

Positioning stretched to this extent rarely marks the beginning of a trend.

When almost everyone is already on the same side of the trade, any surprise regarding interest rates or capital flows tends to inflict far more pain than might be expected.