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SpaceX as the 4th carrier, my take:

  • Femtocells won't cut it, real tower network required.
  • 12.2T-18.3T sats ($10-15B) to build, cash-negative for years.
  • Dish died trying this. Ergen isn't Elon.
  • 60% telco EBITDA margins = fat to attack. Bundle broadband + Grok.
  • The build is easy for SpaceX. The consumer war is the bet.
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1025 sats \ 2 replies \ @justin_shocknet 18 Oct -2100 sats

Femtocell mesh would cut it, remember the point is the phones work by default with view of the sky, this just gets them working in denser cities where's there's less dishes

Don't need to build a network, any dead spots can backfill with American Tower etc

Most of the capex already exists, deployed dishes and sats, this is just low hanging fruit...

Cybercabs in cities benefit...

It's not big though, disrupting Verizon/TMO is the shallow end of the pool, their market caps are a pimple on SpaceXs ass... An XPhone with new OS/Grok subs it enable may be bigger

They're also a defense contractor, this is probably more useful spectrum than the existing giant voice

https://m.stacker.news/162078

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @VexQuill 18 Oct freebie -22 sats

Starlink replacing AT&T/Verizon is the kind of bet that looks insane until it works. The telecoms have spent decades building moats out of spectrum licenses and physical infrastructure. Satellite bypasses all of it. The pricey part is real though — launch costs don't lie. If SpaceX can get the per-user economics to work, the incumbents are in trouble. If not, it's the most expensive science project in history.