USD/BTC = $81,590
Block 972,774

The iPhone Duo Costs 2.45 Million Sats:

What Else can 2,451,281 sats ($2,000) Buy

TL:DR:

The Duo is a beautiful phone that starts dying the day you buy it. The same 2,451,281 sats ($2,000) in BTC, SATS, SpaceX, RH, Netflix or Apple itself is still alive in a year. I am the target customer for this phone and I still cannot make the math work.

Apple's first foldable launched Friday. 2,450,055 sats ($1,999) for the 256GB. 7.6 inch screen open, 5.4 closed, Touch ID is back, and preorders sold out in minutes. I wanted one.

Then I ran it through the only filter that matters.

2,451,281 sats ($2,000).

Here is what else it buys. Portfolio of stocks an investor can consider buying

The Tracker

Every year on this date I will add that year's market price and value, and the P/L column tells the whole story.

And the scenario chart, what the next 3 years could look like:

How the cases are built:

• BTC bear is my 15% hurdle, bull is my 30%.
• SATS bear is 3 years of dividends with the price flat; bull adds the price drifting up to the 122,564 sats ($100) stated amount. SATS has no par value to return to, the market sets the price. SATS dividends are counted as cash collected, not reinvested SATS overall P/L will include dividends collected along the way (about 388,528 sats ($317) a year at the current rate). The phone's "market price" each year is its resale value. The sealed phone's market price is what a sealed one sells for. AAPL P/L will include its small dividend too (about 7,354 sats ($6) a year on 5.8 shares).
• For the stocks, bear is a fall back to recent lows (SPCX 177,411 sats ($144.75) unlock dip, RH 130,286 sats ($106.30) 52 week low, NFLX 78,564 sats ($64.10) two year low) and bull is the analyst consensus target (SPCX 272,962 sats ($222.71), RH 203,236 sats ($165.82), NFLX 112,011 sats ($91.39)).
• The sealed phone bear is the sealed premium fading to about half of retail in 3 years; bull is it holding about three quarters. A sealed iPhone 13 that cost 1,101,851 sats ($899) in 2021 trades around 462,066 sats ($377) sealed on eBay now, about 42% of original after 5 years, so the sealed cases are estimates, not promises.
• AAPL bear is a fall back to the 298,345 sats ($243.42) 52 week low; bull is EPS compounding at the 13.27% forecast for 3 years to about 15,541 sats ($12.68) with the market still paying 30x, about 465,743 sats ($380) a share. AAPL dividends are counted as cash collected, about 23,287 sats ($19) over 3 years.

The phone
1 iPhone Duo. In sats: 2,450,055 sats ($1,999). In one year it is a used foldable worth a fraction of today. The most expensive option on this list is the only one guaranteed to go down. For the record, I don't plan on buying a Duo now.

Or buy one and never open it. A sealed Duo sells for close to retail while it is scarce, preorders sold out and delivery slipped to January, and scalpers outside the Beijing store were paying hundreds over retail on launch day. The sealed premium fades as the model ages, a sealed iPhone 13 that cost 1,101,851 sats ($899) in 2021 goes for about 462,066 sats ($377) on eBay now. The real sealed payday is a 15 year story: a sealed original iPhone that cost 734,159 sats ($599) in 2007 sold for 77,651,673 sats ($63,356) at auction in 2023, and a rare 4GB model went for 233,328,839 sats ($190,373). That is a museum piece, not a plan. In 3 years the sealed Duo is probably worth about 1,225,640 sats ($1,000) to 1,838,461 sats ($1,500), still a loss, just a slower one than the 612,820 sats ($500) used phone. And eBay takes about 13.6% of the sale.

Apple (AAPL)
5.8 shares at 426,192 sats ($347.73) a share. Or skip the phone and buy the company that makes it. The stock just hit a record high on Duo launch day, 431,094 sats ($351.73), and the first foldable is already drawing cracked screen complaints. You are buying a 6,128T sats ($5 trillion) company at about 40 times earnings.

Blok's 9 rules: 5 of 9

1. ❌ Debt 103.37T sats ($84.34B) is not little
2. ❌ Dividend 1,324 sats ($1.08) a year, a 0.31% yield
3. ❌ P/E 39.88, a 40-year payback (P/FCF 37.12, a 37-year payback, is the better read)
4. ✅ Cash 179.58T sats ($146.52B) beats debt 103.37T sats ($84.34B), net cash 76.20T sats ($62.17B)
5. ✅ FCF 167.52T sats ($136.68B) beats ~88.56T sats ($72.26B) in operating expenses
6. ✅ Payout ratio 12.39%, a real pass
7. ✅ Cook's 91.43M sats ($74.6M) is 0.016% of revenue, fair on my scale test
8. ✅ Consumer electronics, tech is on his list (a little bit of tech), and the phone in this post is Apple's own product
9. ❌ EPS forecast 13.27% a year plus a 0.31% yield is about 13.6% a year, below even my 15% bear hurdle

Lyn's lens: EPS 10,688 sats ($8.72) at about 13% growth and a 0.31% yield is worth up to ~25x, about 267,190 sats ($218). Even her 30x growth ceiling is about 321,118 sats ($262). Price 426,192 sats ($347.73) sits above both. Lyn says the price does not work.

Verdict: the best business on this list, at the worst price to buy it.

Bitcoin
2.45M sats (0.0245 BTC). At my bear case of 15% a year, 3,728,398 sats ($3,042) in 3 years. At my bull case of 30%, 5,385,464 sats ($4,394). BTC is my savings. This is the bar everything else has to clear.

SATS (Strive 15% preferred)
21.1 shares at 116,129 sats ($94.75) a share. I picked it for the "safe" 15% income. Pays 18,385 sats ($15) a share every year, so about 388,528 sats ($317) a year, roughly 31,867 sats ($26) a month, for as long as Strive stands behind it. SATS has no 122,564 sats ($100) par value, its par is 1 sat ($0.001) a share. The 122,564 sats ($100) is only the stated amount the 15% is figured on, and the market sets the price. Dividends pay out daily starting November 9, with the first 18 months prefunded. The principal never grows, but the income is real.

SpaceX (SPCX)
13.6 shares at 180,770 sats ($147.49) a share, fresh off the share unlock dip. I am a SpaceX permabull. I buy 13,482 sats ($11) a week hell or high water. This would be 3 years of that DCA in one shot.

Blok's 9 rules: 2 of 9

1. ❌ Debt 48.07T sats ($39.22B) is not little
2. ❌ No dividend
3. ❌ No TTM P/E (loss of 674 sats ($0.55) a share); forward P/E 51.83, a 52-year payback
4. ✅ Cash 110.14T sats ($89.86B) beats debt 48.07T sats ($39.22B), net cash 62.07T sats ($50.64B)
5. ❌ FCF -48.16T sats ($39.29B) against 21.57T sats ($17.6B) in operating expenses, capex is 67.47T sats ($55.05B)
6. Hollow, 0% payout with no dividend
7. ❌ Musk's pay package could reach ~1,226T sats ($1T), granted before the IPO with no shareholder vote
8. ✅ Rockets and Starlink, a sector I believe in
9. ⚠️ Revenue forecast ~37% a year clears my 30% bull hurdle on paper, but TTM earnings are still negative and Q3 was the first profitable quarter

Lyn's lens: no TTM earnings, so it fails the first pillar at the door. On forward EPS of about 3,493 sats ($2.85), her 30x ceiling implies an entry around 104,179 sats ($85). Price 180,770 sats ($147.49).

Verdict: a venture ticket, not rules-grade.

RH (Restoration Hardware)
14.6 shares at 168,440 sats ($137.43) a share. Beaten down, 23% off in a year, and a balance sheet my rules hate. Jeremy is bullish. When I am rich I will shop there. The stock is a different question.

Blok's 9 rules: 0 of 9

1. ❌ Debt 5.04T sats ($4.11B), interest coverage only 1.24x
2. ❌ No dividend
3. ❌ P/E 24.27, a 24-year payback (P/FCF 10.39, a 10-year payback, is the better read)
4. ❌ Cash 153.81M sats ($125.49M) against debt 5.04T sats ($4.11B)
5. ❌ FCF 307.02M sats ($250.50M) against 1.47T sats ($1.20B) in operating expenses
6. Hollow, 0% payout with no dividend
7. ❌ Friedman's 213.26M sats ($174M) option package on a 3.19T sats ($2.6B) company, plus the yacht and aircraft perks
8. ❌ Luxury furniture is not on his sector list
9. ⚠️ EPS forecast 25.62% a year clears my 15% bear hurdle but not the 30% bull, and only from a crushed base

Lyn's lens: EPS 6,937 sats ($5.66) at 15% plus growth and no dividend is worth up to ~30x, about 208,359 sats ($170). The weak balance sheet argues for a haircut toward ~20x, about 138,497 sats ($113). Price 168,440 sats ($137.43) sits between the two.

Verdict: fails my rules on structure; the price is the only thing that argues back.

Netflix (NFLX)
30.4 shares at 80,708 sats ($65.85) a share. Down 41% in a year and it hit a two year low this week. Full disclosure: I nearly bought 10 shares myself on the dip. The cash flow machine is real even if my hurdle will not let me own it.

Blok's 9 rules: 2 of 9

1. ❌ Debt 21.49T sats ($17.53B)
2. ❌ No dividend
3. ⚠️ P/E 19.06 passes on paper, but ex the ~3.43T sats ($2.8B) Warner Bros. termination fee it is ~21-23, over my bar
4. ❌ Cash 10.07T sats ($8.22B) against debt 21.49T sats ($17.53B)
5. ✅ FCF 13.95T sats ($11.38B) beats 11.83T sats ($9.65B) in operating expenses
6. Hollow, 0% payout with no dividend
7. ✅ Sarandos 66.06M sats ($53.9M) and Peters 65.20M sats ($53.2M) combined is 0.22% of revenue, fair on my scale test
8. ❌ Streaming is not on his sector list
9. ❌ My normalized math is ~10-12% a year, below even my 15% bear hurdle (the analyst 3-year EPS forecast of 21.19% would clear it on paper)

Lyn's lens: EPS 4,228 sats ($3.45) at 15% plus growth and no dividend is worth up to ~30x, about 126,854 sats ($103.50), and even 20x is about 84,569 sats ($69). Price 80,708 sats ($65.85) is below both. Lyn says the price works. My rule 9 hurdle says no.

Verdict: a great company my hurdle will not let me own.

So Stackers:

The phone, the sealed phone, the sats, the income, the rocket, the furniture store, the streamer or just Apple itself. What does your 2,451,281 sats ($2,000) do?

I will check back on this post in 1 year and we will see what each 2,451,281 sats ($2,000) became. @remindme in 1 year

_{A note on the picks: RH and Netflix are Jeremy's, the YouTuber I track in my monthly Jeremy vs Bitcoin experiment. SpaceX is my own. Apple is the one making the phone.}

_{Lyn = Lyn Alden investment strategy}