We just launched Gold vs Bitcoin (XAUT/BTC) prediction markets on Glimpse. Each market forecasts where the price of gold, measured in sats, will close at the end of the hour.
How it works: if you correctly predict the price range where gold (XAUT, priced in sats) closes, you earn sats. You can bet that it goes up, down, or trades sideways. All bets are denominated in sats, and all payouts are in sats. Event contracts are priced between 0 and 100 sats. If you predict correctly, you earn 100 sats per correct contract.
Some quick facts about Glimpse:
- No KYC
- Instant deposits and withdrawals via Lightning (also via on-chain Bitcoin)
- Payouts every hour ⇒ You can earn Bitcoin when gold trades up, down, or sideways!
Some links:
- Landing page: https://www.glimpse.trading/
- Wiki, to learn how it works: https://glimpse.gitbook.io/glimpse
- Whitepaper, for the technical details: https://www.glimpse.trading/whitepaper/
- API docs, to build bots or other tools: https://docs.glimpse.markets/
Crude oil vs Bitcoin (WTI/BTC) is also live. Next up are US500 and the difficulty adjustment. Let me know what other markets you’d want to trade on.
Hourly LN settlement fits prediction markets, oracle risk is the real vector. Over on ~lightning people argue about this constantly.
For our our oracle we use the volume weighted average price across multiple exchanges (Bitstamp, Kraken, Coinbase, Bitfinex), and the markets resolve ~5mins after they end to ensure accuracy with the resolution.
nostr sign-in would be a nice feature to add
Sure, its on our roadmap